Tustin - Apartment owners are bracing for heavy refinancing pressure. Roughly $757 billion in multifamily mortgages comes due between 2026 and 2028, according to Mortgage Bankers Association figures reported by the Wall Street Journal, a total that leads all commercial property types. For owners who borrowed cheaply during the pandemic-era boom, the question is less whether the loans mature than whether the properties can still support the same debt at today's rates.
The numbers
About $300 billion of the total matures this year, following a record $310 billion in 2025. Looking further out, more than $1.8 trillion in apartment debt is scheduled to mature over the next decade, per the same MBA data.
Many of the loans coming due were written in 2020 and 2021 at rates near 3%. Borrowers now face refinance rates closer to 6%, roughly doubling debt service on properties bought during the buying frenzy.
Signs of strain
Stress is visible in the securitized market. Morgan Stanley data show the delinquency rate on multifamily loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities rose from 1% in October 2023 to 7.1% this year, the biggest increase of any major property type. Trepp reports that about 3% of this year's maturing loans that cannot be extended are in some form of distress, the highest share in five years.
The core problem is the gap between what owners owe and what lenders will now advance. A Trepp spokesperson said the volume of maturing debt is not the central issue; the refinance gap is, because many owners can cover interest payments but cannot refinance without putting in significant new equity. Trepp's analysis of second-half 2026 CMBS maturities found that about 52% of the multifamily balance in its sample would need some borrower cash to refinance, and 41% would need an equity contribution of at least 20%. Interest-only loans and older Sun Belt properties with softening occupancy have been among the weaker spots, according to Trepp's July delinquency data.
Not every loan is at risk
The picture is uneven. MBA data show just 4% of multifamily and health care mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae mature in 2026, so a large share of apartment debt faces little near-term pressure. Overall commercial mortgage maturities for 2026 are estimated at $875 billion, down about 9% from 2025, and MBA has said the maturity wave appears to be moving past its peak. Concern is concentrated in highly leveraged loans written near the 2021 and 2022 market peak.
What it could mean for buyers
Lenders spent the past two years extending maturities in the hope that rent growth would recover and interest rates would fall. Industry observers say that patience is wearing thin, with creditors increasingly pressing owners to sell, bring in new capital, or hand back the keys. That could create recapitalization needs and motivated sellers, including owners of well-located, fundamentally sound properties that come to market mainly because of a maturing loan. For well-capitalized investors, that is where the opportunity is expected to concentrate.